HBX Group (HotelBeds) – Initial Equity Research

HBX Group operates as a large-scale B2B travel distribution platform, sitting between hotels and a global network of travel distributors such as tour operators, online agencies, airlines and retail travel agencies. Instead of selling rooms directly to consumers, HBX acts as infrastructure within the travel ecosystem, processing billions in accommodation transaction value every year through its technology platform and extensive direct contracting network with hotels. This positioning gives the group structural scale advantages, although the model remains inherently volume-driven and therefore linked to broader travel activity rather than to pricing power.

The company completed its IPO in February 2025, following several years under private equity ownership, at €11.50 per share, giving it a market capitalisation of more than €2.8bn. However, as we already noted last year when analysing WebBeds (its main competitor alongside Expedia’s B2B segment) and this IPO, the listing took place at a fairly demanding valuation for the time, and just one year later the shares are down around 35%.

The reality, however, is that during its first year as a listed company, the group has undergone a significant operational and, above all, financial transformation. Leverage has been reduced , interest costs have diminished drastically, cash generation has become more visible and management has begun to articulate a clearer capital allocation framework, including dividends and buybacks. Today, HBX has a market capitalisation of around €1.8bn and an enterprise value slightly below €2.5bn, while generating €430m of AEBITDA in FY25 with cash conversion above 100%.

What differentiates HBX at this stage is that, beyond the financial clean-up, the business is structurally different from what many investors assume when they look at travel stocks. HBX is not driven by consumer traffic or heavy marketing spend like B2C OTAs, but operates as infrastructure within the travel distribution layer, monetising transactional flows between hotels and professional distributors. As direct hotel contracting deepens and large distributors become more integrated via APIs, volumes scale on top of a largely fixed platform. The expansion into mobility, experiences and travel-related fintech increases services per trip and strengthens the platform model. However, this positioning also means competitive dynamics are reflected in take rates and contract terms, so growth depends primarily on scale rather than pricing power.

Today we publish our deep research on HBX Group to assess whether this transformation is fully reflected in the current valuation:

• A clear breakdown of the business model and a detailed look at its four operating segments
• The role of key industry players (Booking, Expedia, Amadeus IT, Airbnb, etc.) and how HBX differs from its main peers (Expedia B2B and WebBeds)
• A deep dive into the financials
• The capital structure and how the debt profile has evolved pre- and post-IPO
• Key value drivers for the investment case and the potential warning signs that something may be going wrong.
• A full DCF valuation with all underlying assumptions clearly explained
• Our independent view on the investment case and the opportunity set

History

HBX Group (formerly Hotelbeds Group) originated as the travel division of the Barceló Group, initially built around a B2B hotel distribution model serving tour operators and travel agencies. This early phase laid the foundations of the current business model: scale, direct contracting, and a strong focus on global wholesale distribution.

The first major inflection point came in 2001, when the business was acquired by First Choice Holidays and later integrated into TUI following the 2007 merger. Under this umbrella, the company accelerated its international expansion through a combination of organic growth and selective acquisitions, establishing itself as one of the largest bedbanks globally.

The next defining stage occurred in 2016, when the group was acquired through an LBO by Cinven and CPPIB Investment for approximately €1.165bn. From that point, HBX entered a phase clearly focused on inorganic growth, operational integration, and related diversification, with key acquisitions such as GTA, Tourico Holidays, and HolidayTaxis expanding its geographic footprint, client base, and complementary service offering.

This expansion and consolidation process was abruptly interrupted by the pandemic, which severely impacted the global travel industry. However, rather than representing only a cyclical rebound story, from 2022 onwards the company entered a new structural phase, supported by three main pillars:

1. A progressively more integrated and automated proprietary technology platform
2. A rebranding to HBX Group, reflecting a broader value proposition beyond pure bed distribution
3. A new management team with deep sector experience and a clear focus on operational efficiency and ecosystem monetisation

During this period, the group advanced in direct contracting consolidation, margin improvement through digitalisation and automation, and the development of higher value-added services (data-driven solutions, travel-related fintech, and partner services), effectively crystallising investments made over previous years.

Finally, on 13 February 2025, HBX completed this transformation with its IPO at €11.50 per share, implying an initial market capitalisation of approximately €2.84bn. A total of 63 million new shares were issued, while Cinven and CPPIB — the two main shareholders — sold an additional 2 million shares at the same price. The total proceeds raised through the IPO process amounted to approximately €750m, which were primarily used to reduce debt, as discussed later. Following the transaction, HBX Group’s share capital consisted of approximately 247.25 million shares.

This marked the transition from a private equity-led consolidation phase to a new stage centred on global scale, technological leverage, and cash generation within a structurally recovering travel environment.

Business model

Hotelbeds is a B2B hotel bed bank business. For those unfamiliar with the term or the travel industry, let’s try to explain it as follows. Hotel reservations can be made in three different ways:

• Directly (30%): Through the hotel’s website, phone, etc. This is obviously the hotels’ preferred method since there are no commissions.
• Indirectly (60%): Through a B2C platform that has a contract to market the hotel’s rooms, like Booking or Expedia. (The hotel chain has a contract and pays a commission.)
• Through bed banks (10%): This is where HotelBeds comes in, where along with Expedia (B2Bare the top 2 market players. The clients of bed banks are travel agencies, tour operators, airlines, etc. The key difference here is that the hotel has a contract with the bed bank, but not with the rest (the hotel pays commissions to Webbeds, which distributes them to the rest).

Bed banks serve the crucial function of maximizing hotel occupancy and also important to consider, they can do that by offering rooms at a different price than the corporate website or B2C platforms (hotels are interested in being fully booked, even if that means selling the last remaining rooms at a lower price. However, this creates a conflict if they do it through their main website or a B2C partner with whom they have an agreement).

Building on this structure, HBX Group operates as the technology and commercial layer that connects highly fragmented hotel supply with a very broad base of travel distributors.

Its platform is designed to serve very different client profiles under the same infrastructure. Smaller travel agencies typically use HBX’s web interface to access real-time inventory and automated booking processes, while larger OTAs, tour operators and airlines integrate HBX’s APIs directly into their own systems, allowing them to scale volume and customise their offer. In practice, HBX becomes a connectivity hub, not just an inventory source.

Commercially, the model is built on long-term partnerships rather than one-off transactions. Regional sales teams, performance monitoring tools and data analytics help distributors optimise conversion, occupancy and product mix, positioning HBX as a strategic partner in revenue generation, not simply a wholesaler.

The value creation is two-sided:

• For hotels, HBX provides global distribution reach without the need to manage hundreds of individual contracts, helping smooth occupancy and monetise excess inventory in a controlled way.
• For distributors, HBX offers access to global hotel supply that would be difficult to contract directly, plus major technological simplification through a single connection.

On top of this, the B2B structure improves operational reliability, with lower fraud and cancellation risk compared with pure B2C flows.

Business segments

HBX Group operates across four complementary business segments that together position the group as a broad B2B travel distribution platform rather than a single-product intermediary. The model follows the logic of the travel value chain, connecting accommodation supply with global distributors and progressively adding adjacent services that expand its role across the traveller journey. These segments leverage the same supplier relationships, technology infrastructure and distribution network, allowing HBX to monetise multiple components of a trip through a unified platform.

• Accommodation – Core B2B hotel distribution activity (88% group revenues), acting as merchant-of-record and connecting fragmented hotel supply with global distributors at scale.
• Mobility & Experiences – Distribution of transfers, car rental and in-destination activities, increasing revenue per trip through complementary travel services.
• HotelTech – Technology solutions for hotels (e.g., direct booking optimisation), strengthening supplier relationships and expanding HBX’s role beyond indirect distribution.
• Fintech & Insurance – Payment, financial and insurance-related services built on the group’s transaction flows, adding a financial layer to the travel distribution ecosystem.

Accommodation

Accommodation is the economic engine of HBX Group and where the core unit economics of the model are determined. HBX operates as merchant-of-record, sourcing net rates from hotels and reselling inventory to a global distributor base. The key differentiator in this segment is not just volume, but how that volume is contracted.

HBX has built a broad direct contracting structure with hotels in the B2B channel, complemented by additional inventory accessed indirectly via third-party platforms. The distinction is economically relevant: directly contracted hotels carry structurally higher take rates, as HBX captures the full intermediary spread. When inventory is sourced indirectly, margins are diluted because another intermediary also earns a commission. The increasing weight of direct contracting therefore underpins the group’s ability to sustain relatively high take rates within a B2B model, even as mix effects and scale with large clients introduce some moderation at group level.

From a competitive perspective, HBX operates at meaningful scale in a still-fragmented global market. The group accounts for roughly 2.4% of global hotel intermediary TTV, positioning it behind Expedia’s B2B operations but ahead of most regional B2B specialists. This scale, combined with a large base of directly contracted hotels and global distribution reach, reinforces HBX’s role as a key aggregator in international leisure travel flows. The economics of the accommodation segment are therefore shaped by scale + direct relationships, rather than by pure pricing power, and remain central to the overall profitability profile of the group. The global accommodation market is expected to grow at around a 5% CAGR in the coming years.

Mobility & Experiences

Mobility & Experiences represents the second business line of HBX Group, accounting for roughly 8% of group revenues. While smaller than Accommodation, it plays a strategic role within the platform by extending HBX’s presence beyond the hotel room into other components of the traveller journey. Through its technology platform, the group distributes complementary products such as transfers, car rental and in-destination activities, allowing distributors to package multiple services through a single integration.

This segment operates in markets that are both fragmented and structurally attractive. The addressable market for mobility and in-destination experiences is sizeable and growing faster than accommodation, with double-digit growth expectations in certain subsegments, particularly experiences. From a platform perspective, the key feature is not only market growth but cross-selling potential. Once a hotel booking flows through HBX, the marginal cost of adding transfers, car rental or activities is low, while the value per trip increases. In this sense, the segment enhances monetisation of existing demand rather than relying purely on new customer acquisition.

Operationally, HBX offers a broad portfolio: full transport solutions across thousands of routes, vehicle rental through hundreds of providers and tens of thousands of experiences across more than 170 markets. Economically, these services are monetised through commissions on transaction value. Although average take rates can be lower than in accommodation, the segment strengthens the platform’s relevance for distributors, increases share of wallet and supports overall TTV expansion. Mobility & Experiences therefore acts as a revenue per trip enhancer and a diversification layer within the broader travel distribution ecosystem.

HotelTech (Roiback)

HotelTech is a small but strategically relevant line within HBX’s ecosystem (4% revenues), built around Roiback, an end-to-end toolkit that helps hotels improve their direct channel (booking engine, web/UX, digital marketing and customer service). In practice, it plays two roles: it deepens relationships with suppliers (useful for the core accommodation marketplace) and creates an additional monetisation stream linked to hotels’ direct sales. The scale is still limited, but the footprint is tangible – Roiback supports ~2,000 hotels across ~20 markets.

Fintech & Insurance

Fintech & Insurance is the newest segment (launched in 2023) and remains immaterial in revenue terms (less than 1%historically), but it is strategically interesting because it leverages the group’s payment flows and data. The proposition is twofold: internal optimisation (lower payment processing costs, higher acceptance rates) and incremental monetisation by embedding payment / financial products into the ecosystem. The prospectus highlights a suite of six payment and insurance products (three live, three in early-stage/pilot), while the FY25 report notes that “Fintech initiatives” are already contributing to “other income”, reinforcing that this is currently more about efficiency and ancillary income than a standalone revenue pillar.

Peers

B2B Travel Distribution (Bedbanks / Wholesalers)

B2B platforms connect hotels with travel distributors such as tour operators, airlines, retail agencies and other OTAs. Revenue is earned through a take rate on Total Transaction Value (TTV). The key competitive drivers are the scale of contracted inventory, the share of direct hotel relationships, API connectivity and integration with distributors, and geographic contracting footprint. The model is less marketing-intensive and more dependent on network density and operational scale.

Expedia Partner Solutions (EPS)

EPS is the B2B division of Expedia Group and the largest global player when considering access to the group’s inventory base. Although Expedia does not report EPS as a standalone unit we can infer:

• Expedia Group provides access to over 1 million properties globally (combined B2C and B2B inventory).
• EPS leverages the inventory, demand and technology stack of the broader B2C ecosystem, giving it significant supply scale, but it is not structured as a pure B2B platform.
• The integration of B2C and B2B can create inventory advantages, but may also introduce channel conflicts with distribution partners.
• In terms of global intermediary TTV share, EPS is estimated to account for around 5.8%, positioning EPS as the scale leader.

WebBeds (Webjet Group)

WebBeds is the B2B division of Australia-based Webjet Limited and the closest comparable in terms of a pure B2B bedbank model.

• WebBeds operates with an estimated TTV of ~€4–5bn, roughly half the volume handled by HBX.
• Inventory of around 400k hotels, with a higher reliance on indirectly sourced supply than HBX.
• Webjet Group (including its B2C activities) has historically reported EBITDA margins in the 20–30% range at group level, well below HBX’s ~60% adjusted EBITDA margin profile.
• Greater regional concentration (EMEA and APAC) and a lower share of directly contracted hotels relative to HBX.

Note: The EBITDA margin comparison is not perfectly like-for-like. Expedia and Webjet report margins at group level, blending B2C and B2B activities, which have structurally different cost bases (notably higher marketing spend in B2C). HBX, by contrast, is a pure B2B platform, with a lighter commercial cost structure and higher operating leverage. As a result, margin differences reflect both business mix and structural model differences, not just relative efficiency.

Below these global platforms sits a long tail of regional B2B specialists (DidaTravel, Yalago, Miki Travel, Restel, etc.), typically with narrower geographic coverage and greater reliance on larger platforms for part of their inventory.

B2C Online Travel Agencies (OTAs)

B2C OTAs sell directly to end consumers. Their core competitive variables are brand strength, traffic acquisition, marketing efficiency (search and performance marketing), conversion optimisation and breadth of inventory. The model is highly marketing-intensive, with customer acquisition costs as a major expense line. Margins are driven by commission rates and operating leverage on technology and fixed platform costs.

Main players:

• Booking Holdings – Global leader in accommodation OTA, characterised by very high direct hotel penetration and strong profitability supported by scale and marketing efficiency.
• Expedia Group (B2C) – Operates Expedia, Hotels.com and Vrbo. Large global footprint, more diversified exposure across travel verticals and structurally higher marketing intensity.
• Airbnb – Marketplace focused on alternative accommodation and experiences. Highly asset-light with a differentiated supply base and strong brand.

These platforms influence hotel distribution dynamics but do not compete directly with HBX for customers.

Finances

As you can see, despite delivering growing EBITDA and operating an asset-light business model, the company was losing money every year. A closer look shows this was mainly due to the capital structure and the very high interest burden. This has now been addressed through the IPO (as we detail in the coming section)

The TTV evolution of HBX Group reflects a steady expansion in transactional volumes following the normalisation of travel flows. Group TTV increased from approximately €6.9bn in FY23 to €7.7bn in FY24 and €8.2bn in FY25, with FY25 growing around 8% at constant currency. This trajectory highlights the group’s ability to scale volumes on top of an already sizeable base, supported by its global hotel contracting network and broad distributor relationships.

Within the B2B accommodation distribution landscape, HBX operates at meaningful scale. In 2023, the group accounted for roughly 2.4% of global hotel intermediary TTV, positioning it behind Expedia’s B2B operations (~5.9%) but ahead of other regional specialists such as WebBeds (~0.8%) and TBO (~0.5%). At the same time, the market remains relatively unconcentrated, with the leading players collectively representing only a limited share of total intermediary volumes. This combination of existing scale and low overall concentration underpins the platform nature of the business and leaves room for further expansion through continued network penetration rather than reliance on structural market consolidation.

At the same time, the take rate moved from roughly 9.6% in FY23 to 9.0% in FY24 and 8.8% in FY25. This gradual compression is primarily linked to mix effects rather than structural pressure on the model. As volumes increase with larger distributors and as complementary segments gain weight, the average spread per transaction can moderate, particularly in a competitive environment. The relevant point is that the absolute revenue base continues to grow alongside TTV, indicating that the model remains volume-led, with monetisation influenced by customer and product mix rather than by a structural decline in pricing power.

From a geographic standpoint, Europe remains HBX’s largest market, with revenues increasing from roughly €330m in FY23 to around €350m in FY25. Growth in the region has been more gradual, reflecting a mature and well-penetrated B2B network. Within Europe, Spain represents a meaningful share (around one fourth of European revenues), providing structural volume given its role as a leading global leisure destination. This adds visibility and scale, but also means part of the European performance is tied to Southern European leisure flows rather than broad-based continental expansion. In that sense, Europe functions primarily as a stable volume base rather than the main engine of incremental growth.

The more dynamic contribution comes from Americas and MEAAP, which account for a large share of post-normalisation growth. Revenues in the Americas rise from roughly €210m in FY23 to around €240m in FY25, supported by the strategic push in the US and a broader commercial footprint in the region. MEAAP also shows steady expansion (c. €115m to ~€130m), benefiting from long-haul leisure demand and structurally faster-growing source markets.

The IPO Impact

The IPO of HBX Group was not just an equity event, but a full balance sheet restructuring. The company raised ~€725m through the primary issuance, and IPO-related cash flows (net of costs and incentives) were used primarily to pay down debt, bringing Net Debt after IPO and refinancing cash flows to around €648m on a like-for-like basis. Crucially, this equity raise was paired with a deep refinancing of the legacy LBO structure.

In February 2025, HBX cancelled its former Senior Facilities Agreement and fully repaid €1.75bn (principal plus accrued interest) of old private-equity-era debt. This was replaced with a new syndicated package consisting of:

• €600m Term Loan A (EURIBOR +2.0%, maturity 2030)
• €600m Term Loan B (EURIBOR +2.75%, maturity 2032)
• €400m RCF, undrawn at year-end, maturing 2030

At the same time, all shareholder loan notes and preference shares (≈€1.6bn including accrued interest) were converted into equity pre-IPO, removing a structurally expensive layer of financing from the balance sheet. The refinancing was treated as a debt extinguishment, with a one-off €29m accounting loss, but it structurally lowers interest costs by roughly €40m per year going forward.

As a result, the year-end position is radically different from the pre-IPO structure. At 30 September 2025, HBX reports:

• Gross senior debt ~€1.2bn
• Cash ~€820m
• Net Debt €397m (or €639m adjusted for working capital seasonality)

Leverage falls to ~1.5x Adjusted EBITDA, versus >3x pre-IPO. In short, HBX moves from an LBO-style, highly levered structure to a moderately geared, listed-company capital structure, where strong cash conversion can now translate into rapid further deleveraging and strategic optionality rather than just servicing legacy debt.

The New HBX Group (FY26 & onwards)

Growth in revenues

Revenue growth is expected to remain primarily driven by the expansion of transactional volumes rather than by increases in spreads. This volume progression is supported by several structural factors.

1. The B2B accommodation distribution channel continues to gain relevance as travel distribution becomes more complex and distributors rely on aggregated inventory to operate at scale.
2. HBX is increasing penetration with existing large distributors, where deeper API integration and broader destination coverage drive higher volumes per client.
3. Geographic diversification – particularly in the Americas and MEAPAC – provides exposure to regions with faster growth in international travel flows and lower historical B2B penetration.
4. The gradual expansion of complementary services around accommodation increases the overall transaction base processed through the platform, even if these segments carry slightly lower average take rates ((which we expect to decline toward the ~8% range).

Management’s medium-term framework points to low double-digit TTV growth and high single-digit revenue expansion

Margin Expansion

FY25 already illustrates the direction of travel. Adjusted EBITDA increased to around €430m, with margin reaching approximately 60%, up roughly 3 percentage points year-on-year, despite a modest decline in take rate. What makes us think that margin development is being driven more by cost structure dynamics than by pricing.

A relevant part of HBX’s cost base is semi-fixed, particularly in technology, platform infrastructure and central functions. The most intensive phase of platform build-out has largely been completed, and current technology investment is increasingly oriented toward optimisation, automation and process efficiency rather than structural expansion. This allows incremental transaction volumes to be processed without a proportional increase in costs.

This scalability is visible in operating expenses, which have remained broadly stable while TTV and revenues increased. Greater API integration with distributors, more automated contracting and pricing processes, and wider use of data tools reduce manual intervention and support productivity. In this context, incremental growth tends to generate higher contribution margins, supporting a gradual move toward low-60s Adjusted EBITDA margins over the medium term, consistent with management’s framework.

Huge Cash flow generation

From FY26 onwards, EBITDA increasingly converts into equity free cash flow rather than servicing legacy leverage.

• The reduction in debt — and the corresponding interest burden — has a direct impact on cash generation. We estimate interest payments from 2026 onwards at approximately €50m, nearly €250m lower than FY24 and around €130m lower than FY25, effectively flowing straight into cash. This is particularly relevant in the context of a business with cash conversion consistently above 100%.
• We also estimate capex at around 6% of revenue, almost entirely technology-related. Total technology investment is closer to 11–12% of revenue, but roughly half runs through operating expenses, keeping balance sheet intensity low.
• The business further benefits from structurally negative working capital: distributors typically pay within around 15 days, while hotels are paid in roughly 40–42 days. This dynamic continues to support internal funding of growth.

Valuation

We have carried out a valuation using the DCF method with assumptions that are significantly more conservative than the company’s own projections in terms of growth, margins and cash flow conversion. Even under these conditions, we see upside of more than 100% in the company (share price at the close on Friday: €7.6).

• We project TTV growth of 14% in FY26 (the fiscal year begins in October 2025), gradually slowing to 6% in 2029 and 3% in 2030 (in order to limit the impact on terminal value).
• We reduce the take rate to 7.8%, well below the current level of 8.8%.
• We also minimise the positive impact of the structurally negative working capital profile – the group collects from customers in around 15 days and pays suppliers in roughly 42 days — by using projections that are much lower than TTV growth and considerably below recent years.
• We do not include any benefit from the use of funds for share buybacks and we assume a 60% EBITDA margin.

Capital Allocation

Buybacks

HBX has announced a share buyback programme of up to €100m to be carried out across FY26–FY27, which at current prices represents a meaningful amount of capital relative to the company’s size (up to ~7% of the share capital). More than the headline number, what matters is the signal: management is comfortable returning cash while keeping leverage in the 1–2x Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA range, which suggests confidence in the stability of cash generation and limited need for heavy reinvestment (which we estimate around 12% of revenue (half Capex half Opex)

Dividends

In parallel, HBX Group plans to start paying regular dividends from FY26, targeting a payout of around 20% of Group Adjusted Earnings. This does not turn HBX into a high-yield stock, but it formalises the transition to a normalised capital structure where recurring free cash flow can be shared with shareholders while still funding growth and maintaining balance sheet flexibility.

M&A

• M&A is approached as a complementary lever rather than a core growth requirement, with a clear preference for selective, bolt-on transactions that strengthen the platform’s capabilities. The focus is on assets that fit strategically within the existing ecosystem — typically regional leaders, vertical specialists or technology providers — rather than on large, transformational deals driven purely by scale.
• Potential transactions are intended to expand geographic reach, deepen exposure in strategic service verticals and enhance technology capabilities. The objective is to increase control over the end-to-end service delivered to distribution partners, building on the group’s prior integration track record (e.g., GTA/Tourico and HolidayTaxis) and reinforcing the platform-based nature of the model.

Risks

• Slower-than-expected growth in global travel demand – HBX’s model is volume-driven and closely linked to hotel and cross-border travel flows. A weaker macro backdrop, geopolitical disruptions, or structural shifts in travel patterns could translate into slower TTV growth. While the business is diversified geographically and across distributor types, a broad-based slowdown in leisure and international travel would affect volumes more than pricing.
• Competitive pressure in B2B distribution – The B2B accommodation distribution market remains competitive and relatively unconcentrated. Large OTAs are expanding their B2B divisions, and regional players continue to invest in scale and technology. Competition may lead to pressure on take rates, particularly in large distributor contracts. While HBX benefits from network scale and long-standing relationships, maintaining growth may require ongoing commercial concessions (as we are already seeing in take rate last quarters)
• Dependence on large distributors – A growing share of TTV comes from large, integrated distributors via API connections. This increases visibility and scale but can also concentrate bargaining power on the client side. Changes in commercial terms, integration priorities or strategic direction of key partners could affect volumes or margins.
• Execution risk in technology and platform efficiency – Margin expansion partly depends on the continued effectiveness of automation, platform optimisation and data-driven processes. Although the core platform build-out phase is largely complete, failure to deliver expected efficiency gains or delays in technological upgrades could slow operating leverage and margin progression.
• Share overhang from private equity shareholders – Cinven retains a significant stake (around the high-20% range). Over time, a reduction in this holding is likely. While this does not affect fundamentals, it may create technical pressure on the share price and add periods of volatility, particularly around potential secondary placements.

Our Thoughts

HBX Group is a Spanish company we have been following for almost two years, since IPO speculation first began. Along the way, we analysed its competitor WebBeds, which suffered a sharp share price decline due to weaker business prospects and has yet to recover. When we reviewed WebBeds, we ultimately ruled it out — not because we disliked the business model, but because we identified structural issues within the company that did not convince us.

Similarly, when HBX Group went public, we commented that the IPO price looked heavily inflated and that the company still needed to complete the “clean-up” of its debt – something that was carried out shortly after the IPO.

Today, we see a company that still screens poorly on many quantitative filters but is in a radically different position compared to a year ago. It is profitable, generates significant cash, and moderate growth is expected in the coming years. The CEO has been notably transparent in recent conference calls and is delivering in line with what has been communicated to the market. In addition, the company recently announced a €100m share buyback program in January to take advantage of current share prices, as well as the start of an annual dividend with a 20% payout ratio beginning in FY26.

We honestly see this as a “restructuring” story with many elements in place for a positive outcome. It is a stable, industry-leading, asset-light business that has turned into a strong cash-generating machine, and the technical setup suggests the shares may be forming a base that could represent an attractive entry point with a huge potential in the short/medium term.

For now, we have allocated a 2% position in the portfolio, and we genuinely like it for the medium to long term. We will continue analysing and monitoring the company to see if the market provides opportunities to increase the position in the future. It is one of the types of stories we particularly like at MORAM Capital.