CAAP Stock Falls 20% on Iran War — Record FY2025 Results Tell a Different Story
Corporación América Airports (CAAP) is one of the world’s leading private airport operators. Founded in 1998 by the Eurnekian family — who remains the majority shareholder — it originated with the AA2000 concession to operate 33 Argentine airports, including Ezeiza International and Aeroparque Jorge Newbery, the country’s two main hubs. From there, CAAP expanded internationally into Armenia (2002), Uruguay (2003), Ecuador (2004), Brazil (2012), and Italy (2015), and listed on the NYSE in February 2018. Today it operates 52 airports across 6 countries, serving 86.7 million passengers in 2025 — the best year in company history.
The business model is built around long-term concession agreements with governments. Aeronautical revenues — landing fees, terminal use, passenger boarding charges — move directly with traffic volumes. Non-aeronautical revenues (cargo, duty-free, fuel, VIP lounges, parking, F&B, retail) are the higher-margin segment and exceeded aeronautical revenues for the first time in 2025, reaching 54.5% of total revenue ex-IFRIC12. Argentina contributes ~55% of consolidated revenue and EBITDA; Armenia (~16%) is the second engine and the fastest-growing segment; Italy (Toscana Aeroporti: Florence and Pisa), Uruguay, Brazil, and Ecuador complete the portfolio — plus new concessions in Angola and Iraq.
Since we published our initial equity research on August 3, highlighting CAAP’s substantial upside, undemanding valuation and broad set of catalysts, the stock rose around 60% over the following five months. That rerating was driven by strong operational execution, new concession wins and a sharp decline in Argentine country risk after the elections. Since February, however, rising tensions around the Iran conflict have reversed part of that move, with CAAP falling more than 20% in recent weeks amid broader pressure on the airport sector and renewed concern around its exposure to traffic flows in the region.
With the company having just reported its strongest full-year results to date, but with the share price pressured by the Iran conflict, today we want to assess whether the current dislocation is creating an attractive opportunity in a business with substantial growth ahead, or whether key elements of the thesis have changed enough to justify staying on the sidelines. To answer that, we look at:
- A detailed review of Q4 and FY2025 results across all six operating countries — including what the headline numbers reveal about the underlying evolution of the business
- An assessment of how the Iran-Qatar conflict is affecting CAAP, from the direct implications for the Baghdad concession to the indirect traffic impact on Armenia and the rest of the portfolio
- A full review of CAAP’s concession pipeline — including Angola, Iraq, Armenia and the strategic developments that have extended the group’s long-term visibility
- An updated independent valuation, including a multi-scenario EV/EBITDA sensitivity table, revised FY2026–27 estimates and a discussion of the catalysts
- Our independent view on whether the current setup represents a genuine opportunity, and the key variables we are watching most closely