Why Is Excelerate Energy Stock Falling After the Iran War?
Excelerate Energy is a U.S.-listed LNG infrastructure company (NYSE: EE) focused on the downstream segment of the natural gas supply chain — primarily the regasification of liquefied natural gas and, since the acquisition of New Fortress Energy’s Jamaica operations in May 2025, the full LNG-to-power value chain. In simple terms: Excelerate builds and operates the infrastructure that receives LNG tankers, converts the liquefied gas back into its gaseous form, and delivers it to the power plants, industrial customers, and city gas networks that depend on it. It is the last mile of the LNG supply chain, and it is increasingly proving to be the most critical part.
The company’s core asset is the Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) — a purpose-built or converted ship that can be anchored offshore and connected to a country’s gas grid without requiring the years of permitting and billions of capital needed for a land-based import terminal. This makes FSRUs uniquely suited to emerging markets and fast-growing economies that need gas infrastructure now, not in ten years. Excelerate owns and operates 10 FSRUs plus a newbuild (Hull 3407, operational 3Q26) and a second planned through conversion. That fleet represents roughly 20% of the global FSRU fleet and 27% of global capacity — making it the dominant operator in the sector. All units operate under long-term take-or-pay contracts with sovereign-backed or investment-grade counterparties.
Excelerate’s revenues split into two streams:
- Terminal Services — high-margin lease income from the FSRUs and onshore terminals, the backbone of EBITDA.
- LNG, Gas & Power — back-to-back gas sales at a fixed margin and, since the Jamaica acquisition, LNG-to-power terminals, last-mile delivery and bunkering.
The company does not take commodity price risk on gas sales — every purchase is matched with a simultaneous sale under contracted terms. Around 90% of terminal lease revenues are indexed to CPI, making cash flows predictable over a multi-year horizon regardless of spot LNG prices.
Excelerate Energy recently reported record results for 2025, driven by the Jamaica acquisition and the continued optimisation of its global asset portfolio. Full-year Adjusted EBITDA reached $449M (+29% YoY), at the high end of guidance. However, the significant step-up begins in 2026 with the start of production of Hull 3407. Guidance EBITDA is $530M (and increasing in 2027 and 2028). The business is on a clear growth trajectory over the next three years: a new FSRU coming online in Iraq (Q3 2026), the Express recontracting at meaningfully higher rates (2027), and a second FSRU conversion targeting 2028.
Today we review in detail (as we do for each of the five companies discussed):
- Current operational and financial situation
- Our EBITDA estimates by asset for the coming years
- Our independent valuation of the company
- Our view on the stock (Long / Short / Neutral)