Golar LNG (GLNG) remains the company for which MORAM Capital is best known, and the one on which we have spent more time than any other since our first acquisition on May 15th, 2020. We began analyzing the company after a force majeure event that nearly derailed the story. Since then, Golar has transformed from a complex LNG vehicle with exposure to several parts of the gas value chain into a pure-play FLNG platform and the global reference in a niche where proven execution matters more than theoretical capacity.
That transformation has been significant. The shipping segment was separated into CoolCo, the downstream business was sold to New Fortress Energy, Hilli became the proof point for converted FLNG reliability, Gimi finally entered operations in Mauritania/Senegal, and Argentina became the next major growth leg through the 20-year Hilli and MKII contracts. Over the same period, the company has moved from balance sheet stress and strategic complexity to a much cleaner asset base built around scarce floating liquefaction capacity.
For MORAM, Golar has also been one of the most important investments in our history. Our initial purchase was made at $5.15 per share, and at different points the position represented as much as 45% of the portfolio. Through entries, exits and derivative positioning, the investment has generated close to a 12x return on the original purchase. That history matters because Golar is not a company we approach superficially. We have modeled the assets, contracts, commodity exposure and balance sheet repeatedly over the past six years.
The 1Q26 update comes at an important point in the story. Gimi is now contributing materially to earnings, Hilli is approaching the end of its Cameroon contract before moving to Argentina, MKII remains on schedule, and the company is preparing for the next stage of FLNG growth. At the same time, the share price has already moved significantly, the market is beginning to discount part of the fourth-FLNG opportunity, and the Goldman-led strategic review adds a new corporate dimension to the investment case.
This makes the current setup more complex than it was a few months ago. The market is no longer ignoring the contracted platform, and the share price has moved sharply since our updated equity research published just before the war. Part of that move reflects the new risk premium the market now assigns to Qatar, as well as the growing need to diversify LNG supply away from the US, which is becoming the largest player in the global LNG market. But it is still not clear how much value the market is willing to assign to what comes next. Argentina is progressing, Gimi is exceeding contract, MKII remains on schedule, and the LNG market backdrop has become more supportive for new FLNG awards.
Our objective in this report is to explain how each piece of the puzzle affects Golar’s investment case, so that when new information arrives – positive or negative – we can assess it quickly and act accordingly.
Today, we update our Golar LNG thesis with:
- Commentary on the 1Q26 results and the current share price setup
- Analysis of the progress in Argentina and the value embedded in SESA, including infrastructure, offtake contracts, remaining volumes and commodity-linked economics
- A detailed follow-up on potential fourth and fifth FLNG opportunities, across the Middle East, Latin America and Africa
- Analysis of the balance sheet and the strategic review as tools to finance future growth, including MKII/Hilli refinancing
- Valuation of Golar under several scenarios, including the current contracted platform, a new Mark I / Mark II / Mark III FLNG, and commodity price sensitivities
- Our view on Golar’s current situation, the risk/reward balance, key catalysts and potential ways to position through options