HBX Group operates as a large-scale B2B travel distribution platform, sitting between hotels and a global network of distributors – tour operators, online agencies, airlines and retail travel agencies. The group does not sell rooms directly to consumers. It acts as part of the infrastructure layer of the travel ecosystem, processing billions of euros in accommodation transaction value through its technology platform and extensive direct hotel contracting network.
The company reported another operationally solid semester. However, management revised guidance downwards due to the impact that the Middle East conflict is having on global travel flows and on the industry more broadly, with the shares moving back close to historical lows since the IPO. The company itself is taking advantage of this weakness through buybacks – since announcing its €100MM repurchase programme on February 13, HBX has already executed more than 20% of the programme. In parallel, several Spanish media outlets have published reports in recent weeks regarding potential takeover interest in the company.
In this note, we focus on understanding HBX’s current positioning and what investors should expect over the short and medium term. In particular, we analyse: the 1H26 results in detail, including the apparent contradiction between strong TTV growth, lower take rates, margin expansion and another downward revision to FY26 guidance; the impact of the Middle East conflict on travel flows, booking patterns and regional performance; the sustainability of HBX’s business model, including take rate pressure, competitive dynamics and whether current monetisation levels should be treated as cyclical or structural; cost discipline, operating leverage, balance sheet evolution and capital allocation; and our updated DCF valuation after incorporating lower monetisation assumptions, slower margin expansion and a higher discount rate following the repeated guidance resets since the IPO.
HBX Group – 1H26 Results
HBX reported a better underlying 1H26 than the headline guidance cut suggests. TTV reached €3,770MM, up 17% at constant currency and above the top end of the previous full-year growth range. Revenue was weaker because take rate compressed from 9.5% to 8.2%, but adjusted EBITDA still increased to €163MM, with a 52.8% margin.
This is not a weak volume print. The group continues to grow transaction value in a difficult travel backdrop, which supports the relevance of its distribution network. The issue is monetisation: the revenue captured per unit of TTV has moved materially lower, reflecting a mix of lower-margin channels, pricing actions and non-trading factors.
The areas under management control were solid. Operating costs declined 5% YoY despite revenue being broadly flat, net finance costs declined sharply and leverage fell to 1.7x. This reflects several years of simplification, automation and cost-base rationalisation, not just accounting noise.
The issue is visibility rather than execution. This guidance cut is easier to justify than the previous ones, given the Middle East disruption and the direct impact it is having on travel corridors, booking patterns and FY26 assumptions. Management’s base case assumes around four months of disruption followed by gradual recovery, which is not unreasonable. The uncomfortable point is that if the conflict lasts longer than that, the guidance may need to be revised again. For a company that is still building credibility as a listed business, that leaves investors with a stronger operational print than the share price suggests, but also with a short-term risk profile that is harder to underwrite.
HBX Group – Take Rate
Take rate compression remains the main issue. Group take rate declined from 9.5% in 1H25 to 8.2% in 1H26, with 2Q26 below 8% on a quarterly basis. Management attributes the decline to three buckets: roughly 50bps from business mix, 30bps from pricing actions and 50bps from non-trading factors. We find the attribution broadly credible, but the conclusion should not be that take rate automatically reverts. Deliberate does not mean temporary.
The mix effect reflects conscious decisions to grow third-party supply, increase OTA exposure and lean into shorter booking windows. These decisions are rational if the objective is to capture volume in the faster-growing parts of the market, and the TTV trajectory supports that logic. The trade-off is lower revenue capture per transaction.