NewPrinces – Updated Equity Research Following the FY25 Results Selloff
NewPrinces – formerly Newlat, and controlled by the Mastrolia family since 2008 – closed an extremely difficult week after reporting its FY25 results on Tuesday morning. After rising nearly 10% on the day of the results presentation, the shares went on to fall more than 26% between Wednesday and Thursday, closing at their lowest level of the past 52 weeks.
At MORAM Capital, we have been covering NewPrinces – previously Newlat Food – since late 2022, closely following the company’s transformation into a European agrifood heavyweight through more than 20 acquisitions over the past two decades. The most important of these have taken place since its 2019 IPO, and especially since 2022, allowing the group to grow revenues from around €300 million to more than €6.5 billion and to expand its market capitalisation from below €200 million to more than €1 billion at its peak in the summer of 2025.
However, the last nine months have been highly turbulent, mainly for two reasons: the acquisition of Carrefour Italia – by far the most controversial deal in the company’s history – and the IPO of Princes, its UK manufacturing arm, which also includes the legacy Newlat assets. Both processes have been marked by major communication mistakes and by expectations that were set too high and ultimately not met.
All of this market dissatisfaction, combined with this week’s aggressive short attack (more on that later), driven by lower expectations for Carrefour Italia and the lack of detail around the turnaround plan, has left the company trading at around 3x EV/EBITDA with a net cash position (ex-IFRS 16). But we are not here simply to say that the stock is cheap and that nothing has changed, because that would not be true. If there is one thing we have tried to stand for over the past six years, it is to remain objective and transparent.
Our goal today is to provide the most detailed post-results analysis of NewPrinces’ current situation that has been published so far. In a critical and objective manner, we review all the available information, make informed assumptions about Carrefour’s situation – including lease costs, required capex, realistic synergies and 2026 free cash flow – and analyse Princes UK in depth, as it remains the key listed manufacturing asset.
We have deliberately chosen to produce a thorough piece of work, asking the difficult questions and trying to provide the most reasonable answers, rather than rushing out a superficial note on Wednesday. We believe the result has been worth it.
Today we analyse in depth:
- FY25 results, with a detailed breakdown of the main drivers, Q4 negative FCF, the balance sheet, and more
- An independent assessment of the current situation at Princes UK and Carrefour Italia
- The key elements of a potential Carrefour turnaround, including real estate, synergies, and operational levers
- Our 2026–2028 outlook, based on our own assumptions
- Our estimate of Carrefour’s free cash flow based on all currently available information
- Capital structure – both at Princes and at NewPrinces – and the group’s financial position
- Our independent valuation, both for Princes on a standalone basis and for NewPrinces, under the two scenarios we consider most likely
- Our thoughts on NewPrinces and what has changed since Tuesday