Special New Fortress Energy – FY24 Results

New Fortress Energy is a company specialized in natural gas infrastructure, focusing on developing countries. It operates across the entire value chain (upstream, midstream, and downstream) and has been one of the most interesting stories in the markets over the past five years.

Since its IPO in 2019, the company has grown rapidly, increasing its revenues 10x in five years. It peaked in 2022 when record TTF prices in Europe allowed it to capitalize on the price gap by exporting U.S. LNG cargos. However, in recent months, high leverage and project delays led to a painful capital increase and debt refinancing, from which it is gradually recovering (we analyse this in detail later).

At MORAM Capital, we have published numerous analyses of the company, taking both long and short positions throughout this period— overall, with quite a bit of success, but also with some disappointment — .

You can find our latest analysis explaining in detail every single aspect of the company, along with the financial model of this company on the equity research section of our website

Today we focus on:

• Analyzing the FY24 results, with a focus on the less obvious aspects
• Puerto Rico contracts, estimation of excess LNG (Nicaragua and Fast LNG) and profits secured through hedging
• The company’s current situation from a debt perspective
• Adapting NFE’s cash flow guidance to our base-case scenario
• Updating our independent valuation (spreadsheet available)
• In-depth reflection on the company’s situation, upcoming catalysts and risks, and our strategy with NFE